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House committee subpoena votes on Kalshi
If Tom Homan is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, CBS, NBC, Axios, The Washington Post, CNN, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
96% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will it be confirmed that Elon Musk is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Elon Musk | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 824 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Donald Trump Jr. is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Donald Trump Jr. | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 718 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Pete Hegseth is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Pete Hegseth | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 699 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Stephen Miller is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Stephen Miller | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 689 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Jared Kushner is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Jared Kushner | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 464 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Todd Blanche is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Todd Blanche | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 453 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Howard Lutnick is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Howard Lutnick | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 413 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Kash Patel is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Kash Patel | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 299 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Kristi Noem is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Kristi Noem | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 270 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Pam Bondi is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Pam Bondi | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 264 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Tom Homan is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Tom Homan | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 225 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Steve Witkoff is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Steve Witkoff | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 176 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 167 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Eric Trump is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Eric Trump | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 46 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that JD Vance is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · JD Vance | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 18 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Corey Lewandowski is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Corey Lewandowski | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 16 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Russ Vought is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Russ Vought | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 11 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be confirmed that Scott Bessent is subpoenaed by a vote of a committee or subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives? · Scott Bessent | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 7 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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