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Hsinchu County magistrate election winner on Kalshi
If Hsu Hsin-ying wins the 2026 Hsinchu County magistrate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Central Election Commission of Taiwan.
Market says (typical open contract)
37%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
74% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 37¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.21 | 38.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the 2026 Hsinchu County magistrate election? · Hsu Hsin-ying | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 3,196 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cheng Chao-fang win the 2026 Hsinchu County magistrate election? · Cheng Chao-fang | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 2,031 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chu Ting-yu win the 2026 Hsinchu County magistrate election? · Chu Ting-yu | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 50 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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