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Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Hurricane category on Kalshi

If Ulana reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 157 mph, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The Weather Company.

Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 85 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
91% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
46¢ (now)1.7¢$1.8947.7%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Paulette become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above0¢0%0.0¢—1%4,958Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Rene become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above46¢46%1.7¢—91%1,050Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Pena become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above24¢24%1.3¢—48%600Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Paulette become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above5¢5%0.3¢—10%496Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Rene become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above10¢10%0.7¢—21%490Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Paulette become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above2¢2%0.2¢—5%370Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Paulette become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above5¢5%0.3¢—10%370Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Wilfred become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above2¢2%0.1¢—4%203Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Rene become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above5¢5%0.3¢—10%188Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Paulette become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above8¢8%0.5¢—15%175Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Wilfred become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above2¢2%0.1¢—4%119Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Sally become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above14¢14%0.9¢—29%104Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Sally become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above1¢1%0.1¢—2%97Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Rene become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above0¢0%0.0¢—1%75Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Sally become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above22¢22%1.2¢—43%75Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Vicky become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above22¢22%1.2¢—45%71Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Vicky become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above22¢22%1.2¢—44%70Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Vicky become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above25¢25%1.3¢—50%70Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Vicky become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above22¢22%1.2¢—45%70Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Teddy become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above1¢1%0.1¢—2%70Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Teddy become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above22¢22%1.2¢—44%70Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Wilfred become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above0¢0%0.0¢—1%70Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Wilfred become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above0¢0%0.0¢—1%70Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Wilfred become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above0¢0%0.0¢—1%70Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Omar become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above12¢12%0.7¢—23%56Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Pena become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above1¢1%0.1¢—2%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Pena become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above1¢1%0.1¢—2%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Pena become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above1¢1%0.1¢—2%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Pena become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above1¢1%0.1¢—2%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Rene become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above45¢45%1.7¢—90%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Leah become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above48¢48%1.7¢—97%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Kyle become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above8¢8%0.5¢—15%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Kyle become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above10¢10%0.7¢—21%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Vicky become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above46¢46%1.7¢—91%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Teddy become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above45¢45%1.7¢—90%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Teddy become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above45¢45%1.7¢—90%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Teddy become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above46¢46%1.7¢—91%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Sally become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above45¢45%1.7¢—90%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Sally become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above46¢46%1.7¢—91%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Omar become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above46¢46%1.7¢—91%50Dec 02, 04:59 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 85 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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