What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.20.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Hurricanes on Kalshi

If more than 8 hurricanes of category 3 or above occur in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

17% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.19	9.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will there be more than 11 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Above 11	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	4,796	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will there be more than 10 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Above 10	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	3,802	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will there be more than 12 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Above 12	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,573	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will there be more than 8 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Above 8	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	2,877	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026? · Above 3	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	2,183	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will there be more than 5 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026? · Above 5	26¢	26%	1.4¢	—	53%	2,118	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will there be more than 13 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Above 13	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	1,119	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.