Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Hurricane Names on Kalshi
If a storm named Wale is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 37 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fay be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Fay | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 142,266 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Moke be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026? · Moke | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 34,786 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josephine be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Josephine | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 17,891 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ema be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026? · Ema | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 14,946 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lowell be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Lowell | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 14,169 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dolly be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Dolly | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,896 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kyle be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Kyle | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 8,803 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Akoni be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026? · Akoni | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,214 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Yolanda be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Yolanda | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 7,099 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Xavier be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Xavier | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 6,504 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zeke be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Zeke | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 6,446 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Edouard be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Edouard | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,341 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hone be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026? · Hone | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,230 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hanna be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Hanna | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,812 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iona be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026? · Iona | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,728 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Winnie be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Winnie | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 3,980 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elida be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Elida | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,971 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iselle be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Iselle | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,939 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Leah be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Leah | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,769 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Julio be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Julio | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,617 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Douglas be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Douglas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,980 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gonzalo be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Gonzalo | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,388 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rene be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Rene | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,869 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Norbert be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? · Norbert | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,635 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Marco | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 997 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ulana be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026? · Ulana | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 983 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wale be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026? · Wale | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 533 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Paulette be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Paulette | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 464 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pena be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026? · Pena | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 424 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Olana be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026? · Olana | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 422 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Keli be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026? · Keli | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 421 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wilfred be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Wilfred | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 349 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nana be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Nana | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 336 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sally be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Sally | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 193 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Omar be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Omar | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 188 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vicky be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Vicky | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 187 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Teddy be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? · Teddy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 186 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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