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Which ICE reforms will become law? on Kalshi
If legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: White House, Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras become law in 2026? · Mandatory body-worn cameras | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 25,233 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Visible identification | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 16,345 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that prohibits ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement operations from wearing facial coverings, with limited exceptions become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Mask ban | 7¢ | 7% | 0.4¢ | — | 14% | 10,841 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that abolishes U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement as a federal agency become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Abolish ICE | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,103 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code become law before Jan 1, 2027? · QR-code identification | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,632 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026? · Separate HSI from ICE | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,562 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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