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How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027? on Kalshi
If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 1,400 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.
Market says (typical open contract)
57%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
85% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 57¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.51 | 58.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027? · Above 500 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 26,884 | Oct 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1100 as of October 31, 2027? · Above 1,100 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 8,695 | Oct 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 700 as of October 31, 2027? · Above 700 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 8,422 | Oct 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 800 as of October 31, 2027? · Above 800 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 7,503 | Oct 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 600 as of October 31, 2027? · Above 600 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 6,479 | Oct 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1300 as of October 31, 2027? · Above 1,300 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 2,296 | Oct 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1200 as of October 31, 2027? · Above 1,200 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 1,315 | Oct 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 900 as of October 31, 2027? · Above 900 | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 1,295 | Oct 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1400 as of October 31, 2027? · Above 1,400 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,223 | Oct 31, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1000 as of October 31, 2027? · Above 1,000 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 877 | Oct 31, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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