What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 48¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.84.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 49% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 48%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms? on Kalshi

If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.

Market says (typical open contract)

48%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

95% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
47¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.86	48.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress? · At least 3	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	85%	1,814	Jan 03, 14:59 UTC
Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress? · At least 1	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	938	Jan 03, 14:59 UTC
Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress? · At least 2	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	200	Jan 03, 14:59 UTC
Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress? · At least 4	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	0	Jan 03, 14:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.