What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 40¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.08.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 42% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 40%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

INXDIRY on Kalshi

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST is above 9800, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: For example, Google Finance.

Market says (typical open contract)

40%

Median YES price across 34 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

81% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
41¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.07	42.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the S&P 500 be above 7600 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,600 or above	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	14,197	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7800 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,800 or above	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	68%	12,294	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 8000 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 8,000 or above	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	8,105	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,900 or above	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	41%	6,771	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7700 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,700 or above	43¢	43%	1.7¢	—	86%	6,611	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7400 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,400 or above	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	73%	4,346	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7300 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,300 or above	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	51%	4,024	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 8000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 8,000 or above	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	3,978	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 6900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 6,900 or above	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	23%	3,602	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 9000 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 9,000 or above	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	3,285	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,500 or above	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	89%	2,764	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 8200 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 8,200 or above	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	91%	2,300	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,000 or above	90¢	90%	0.6¢	—	20%	2,299	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 8500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 8,500 or above	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	2,178	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 8600 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 8,600 or above	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	2,161	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 8400 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 8,400 or above	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	1,824	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7000 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 7,000 or above	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	44%	1,560	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 8200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 8,200 or above	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	1,373	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,100 or above	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	32%	1,062	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 8300 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 8,300 or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	964	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,200 or above	81¢	81%	1.1¢	—	38%	876	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 8100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 8,100 or above	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	860	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 8400 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 8,400 or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	717	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 7,200 or above	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	43%	231	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7400 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 7,400 or above	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	56%	216	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7600 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 7,600 or above	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	80%	202	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 8800 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 8,800 or above	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	156	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 7800 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 7,800 or above	62¢	62%	1.6¢	—	76%	110	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 10200 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 10,200 or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	98	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 9200 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 9,200 or above	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	31	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 10000 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 10,000 or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	20	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 9800 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 9,800 or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	10	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 9600 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 9,600 or above	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	0	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC
Will the S&P 500 be above 9400 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 9,400 or above	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Dec 31, 21:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.