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S&P 500 above/below on Kalshi
If the S&P 500 index value on Nov 10, 2026 at 3pm EST is above 7669.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: For example, Google Finance.
Market says (typical open contract)
82%
Median YES price across 629 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
35% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 82¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $0.63 | 83.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7449.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,450 or above | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,888 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7529.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,530 or above | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 1,333 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7564.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,565 or above | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1,178 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7569.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,570 or above | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1,068 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7544.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,545 or above | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 1,030 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7254.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,255 or above | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,016 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7399.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,400 or above | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,000 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7544.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,545 or above | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 968 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7434.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,435 or above | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 946 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7559.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,560 or above | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 812 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7469.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,470 or above | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 751 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7459.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,460 or above | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 673 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7524.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,525 or above | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 597 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7484.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,485 or above | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 572 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7504.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,505 or above | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 438 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7514.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,515 or above | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 314 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7549.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,550 or above | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 300 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7314.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,315 or above | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 234 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7499.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,500 or above | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 229 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7559.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,560 or above | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 222 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7509.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,510 or above | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 209 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7494.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,495 or above | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 166 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7569.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,570 or above | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 153 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7549.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,550 or above | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 109 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7619.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,620 or above | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 102 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7554.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,555 or above | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 59 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7579.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,580 or above | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 50 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7584.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,585 or above | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 48 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7599.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,600 or above | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 47 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7564.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,565 or above | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 32 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7549.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 11am EST? · 7,550 or above | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 27 | Nov 10, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7524.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,525 or above | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 13 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7509.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,510 or above | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 13 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7489.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,490 or above | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 13 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7519.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,520 or above | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 12 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7494.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 2pm EST? · 7,495 or above | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 12 | Nov 10, 19:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7539.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,540 or above | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 11 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7434.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,435 or above | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 10 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7574.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 7,575 or above | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 8 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7579.9999 on Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,580 or above | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 6 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 629 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.