Markets › Kalshi › Financials
S&P 500 yearly range on Kalshi
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST is below 4600, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: For example, Google Finance.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 59 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P 500 be between 8000 and 8199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 8,000 to 8,199.99 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 711,426 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7800 and 7999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,800 to 7,999.99 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 683,657 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7600 and 7799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,600 to 7,799.99 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 634,801 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7400 and 7599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,400 to 7,599.99 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 602,356 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be below 4000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 3,999.99 or below | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 493,944 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7200 and 7399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,200 to 7,399.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 448,166 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 8200 and 8399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 8,200 to 8,399.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 430,549 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 6800 and 6999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 6,800 to 6,999.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 401,852 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 7,000 to 7,199.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 385,353 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 6600 and 6799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 6,600 to 6,799.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 345,964 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 6400 and 6599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 6,400 to 6,599.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 341,488 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 8400 and 8599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 8,400 to 8,599.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 320,574 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 6200 and 6399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 6,200 to 6,399.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 314,570 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 6000 and 6199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 6,000 to 6,199.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 300,894 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 8800 and 9000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 8,800 to 9,000 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 300,035 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 8600 and 8799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 8,600 to 8,799.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 294,281 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 5800 and 5999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 5,800 to 5,999.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 288,840 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 9000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 9,000.01 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 277,796 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 5600 and 5799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 5,600 to 5,799.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 258,066 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 5200 and 5399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 5,200 to 5,399.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 171,668 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 5400 and 5599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 5,400 to 5,599.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 169,421 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 5000 and 5199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 5,000 to 5,199.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 156,635 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 4800 and 4999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 4,800 to 4,999.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 138,111 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 4000 and 4199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 4,000 to 4,199.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 125,860 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 4600 and 4799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 4,600 to 4,799.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 125,431 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 4400 and 4599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 4,400 to 4,599.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 122,638 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 4200 and 4399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 4,200 to 4,399.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 112,426 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7800 and 7999.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 7,800 to 7,999.99 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 3,008 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7600 and 7799.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 7,600 to 7,799.99 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,088 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 8600 and 8799.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 8,600 to 8,799.99 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 885 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7200 and 7399.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 7,200 to 7,399.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 249 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7199.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 7,000 to 7,199.99 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 242 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 8000 and 8199.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 8,000 to 8,199.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 235 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 6200 and 6399.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 6,200 to 6,399.99 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 170 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 9200 and 9399.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 9,200 to 9,399.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 31 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 5400 and 5599.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 5,400 to 5,599.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 18 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 6000 and 6199.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 6,000 to 6,199.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 18 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 5800 and 5999.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 5,800 to 5,999.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 18 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 5600 and 5799.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 5,600 to 5,799.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 18 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 5200 and 5399.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST? · 5,200 to 5,399.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 18 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 59 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.