What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 88¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.40.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 89% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 88%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Samsara quarter kpi on Kalshi

If Samsara Inc. reports Above 3930 large customers with $100k+ arr in Q3 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

88%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

23% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
89¢ (now)	0.7¢	$0.38	89.7%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3900 large customers with $100k+ arr in Q3 2027? · Above 3900	10¢	10%	0.7¢	—	21%	4,451	Apr 02, 05:00 UTC
Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3930 large customers with $100k+ arr in Q3 2027? · Above 3930	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	3,014	Apr 02, 05:00 UTC
Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3810 large customers with $100k+ arr in Q3 2027? · Above 3810	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	61%	1,900	Apr 02, 05:00 UTC
Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3840 large customers with $100k+ arr in Q3 2027? · Above 3840	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	91%	1,825	Apr 02, 05:00 UTC
Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3750 large customers with $100k+ arr in Q3 2027? · Above 3750	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	1,003	Apr 02, 05:00 UTC
Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3630 large customers with $100k+ arr in Q3 2027? · Above 3630	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	935	Apr 02, 05:00 UTC
Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3780 large customers with $100k+ arr in Q3 2027? · Above 3780	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	23%	605	Apr 02, 05:00 UTC
Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3660 large customers with $100k+ arr in Q3 2027? · Above 3660	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	444	Apr 02, 05:00 UTC
Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3720 large customers with $100k+ arr in Q3 2027? · Above 3720	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	400	Apr 02, 05:00 UTC
Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3690 large customers with $100k+ arr in Q3 2027? · Above 3690	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	200	Apr 02, 05:00 UTC
Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3870 large customers with $100k+ arr in Q3 2027? · Above 3870	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	49%	150	Apr 02, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.