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Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election? on Kalshi
If Yaron Zelekha formally takes office as Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Deutsche Welle, MS Now, ABC, Al Jazeera, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Fox News, CNN, ABC News Australia, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Moshe Feiglin be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Moshe Feiglin | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 9,507 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gadi Eisenkot be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Gadi Eisenkot | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,479 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bezalel Smotrich be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Bezalel Smotrich | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 7,923 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Benjamin Netanyahu | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,628 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Naama Lazimi be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Naama Lazimi | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,656 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Naftali Bennett be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Naftali Bennett | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 6,088 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yair Golan be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yair Golan | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,903 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Orit Farkash-Hacohen be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Orit Farkash-Hacohen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,367 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chili Tropper be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Chili Tropper | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,205 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Aryeh Deri be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Aryeh Deri | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,818 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yair Lapid be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yair Lapid | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,554 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Israel Katz be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Israel Katz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,106 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Keren Terner Eyal be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Keren Terner Eyal | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,726 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yaron Zelekha be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yaron Zelekha | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,270 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nir Barkat be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Nir Barkat | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,238 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Eli Cohen be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Eli Cohen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,143 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Avigdor Lieberman | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 2,011 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Shaul Meridor be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Shaul Meridor | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 756 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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