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Who will be Israeli foreign minister after the election? on Kalshi
If Yair Lapid formally takes office as Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Deutsche Welle, MS Now, ABC, Al Jazeera, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Fox News, CNN, ABC News Australia, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Benjamin Netanyahu | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 54,285 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yair Lapid be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yair Lapid | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 11,455 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Benny Gantz be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Benny Gantz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,856 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Einat Wilf be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Einat Wilf | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 7,129 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gadi Eisenkot be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Gadi Eisenkot | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 6,085 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yair Golan be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yair Golan | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,789 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yossi Cohen be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yossi Cohen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,703 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chili Tropper be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Chili Tropper | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,678 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yoram Cohen be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yoram Cohen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,097 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ron Dermer be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Ron Dermer | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,020 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Gideon Sa'ar | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 657 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Naftali Bennett be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Naftali Bennett | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 394 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Amir Ohana be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Amir Ohana | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 348 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Israel Katz be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Israel Katz | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Eli Cohen be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Eli Cohen | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Avigdor Lieberman | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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