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Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election? on Kalshi
If Yariv Levin formally takes office as Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Deutsche Welle, MS Now, ABC, Al Jazeera, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Fox News, CNN, ABC News Australia, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 29 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Moshe Gafni be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Moshe Gafni | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 8,001 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Naftali Bennett be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Naftali Bennett | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,175 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yitzhak Goldknopf be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yitzhak Goldknopf | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,293 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ayelet Shaked be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Ayelet Shaked | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,106 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gilad Kariv be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Gilad Kariv | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,001 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Naama Lazimi be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Naama Lazimi | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,551 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gadi Eisenkot be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Gadi Eisenkot | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,525 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Malchieli be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Michael Malchieli | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 3,191 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Meirav Cohen be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Meirav Cohen | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,601 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Avigdor Lieberman | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,851 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Aryeh Deri be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Aryeh Deri | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,360 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yoav Ben-Tzur | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,259 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ofir Katz be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Ofir Katz | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 500 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yair Golan be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yair Golan | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 475 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yinon Azulay be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yinon Azulay | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 339 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oded Forer be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Oded Forer | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 78 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Orit Farkash-Hacohen be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Orit Farkash-Hacohen | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 25 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Miki Zohar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Miki Zohar | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 25 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Haim Biton be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Haim Biton | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 25 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Gideon Sa'ar | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 25 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chili Tropper be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Chili Tropper | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 25 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Amir Ohana be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Amir Ohana | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 25 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yoram Cohen be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yoram Cohen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 10 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yariv Levin be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yariv Levin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Miri Regev be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Miri Regev | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Keren Terner Eyal be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Keren Terner Eyal | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Israel Katz be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Israel Katz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Eli Cohen be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Eli Cohen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will David Amsalem be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · David Amsalem | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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