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How many Israeli elections until a government forms? on Kalshi
If the number of Israeli Knesset elections held is exactly 4 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Central Elections Committee, The Knesset.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first? · 1 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 3,060 | Oct 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 2 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first? · 2 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 1,822 | Oct 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 3 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first? · 3 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 253 | Oct 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 4 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first? · 4 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 75 | Oct 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be at least 5 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first? · At least 5 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 58 | Oct 28, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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