What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 10¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.13.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 11% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 10%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

How many new countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2028? on Kalshi

If the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement is at least 6 after Issuance and before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.

Market says (typical open contract)

10%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

21% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
10¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.15	10.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 3 after Issuance and before 2028? · At least 3	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	41%	392	Jan 01, 14:59 UTC
Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 4 after Issuance and before 2028? · At least 4	10¢	10%	0.7¢	—	21%	210	Jan 01, 14:59 UTC
Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 2 after Issuance and before 2028? · At least 2	31¢	31%	1.5¢	—	62%	158	Jan 01, 14:59 UTC
Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 5 after Issuance and before 2028? · At least 5	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	12	Jan 01, 14:59 UTC
Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 6 after Issuance and before 2028? · At least 6	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Jan 01, 14:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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