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ITF Doubles Match on Kalshi
If Lage / Martinez Miranda wins the Lage / Martinez Miranda vs Covato / Voelzke professional tennis match in the 2026 M15 Zamora Round of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, ITF, Fox Sports, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 108 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 52¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.68 | 53.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masabayashi / Suksumrarn wins · Masabayashi / Suksumrarn | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 6,654 | Nov 24, 07:00 UTC |
| Koaykul / Navasirisomboon wins · Koaykul / Navasirisomboon | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 2,761 | Nov 24, 07:00 UTC |
| Barrett / Corwin wins · Barrett / Corwin | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 1,039 | Nov 24, 18:00 UTC |
| Aleksandar Amarandei / Fiorentini wins · Aleksandar Amarandei / Fiorentini | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 922 | Nov 24, 11:00 UTC |
| La Vela / Marino wins · La Vela / Marino | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 788 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Naharro / Pujol Navarro wins · Naharro / Pujol Navarro | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 783 | Nov 24, 14:30 UTC |
| Molleker / Sorger wins · Molleker / Sorger | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 523 | Nov 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Abderrahman / van Wyk wins · Abderrahman / van Wyk | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 506 | Nov 24, 10:30 UTC |
| Belozertsev / Schell wins · Belozertsev / Schell | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 416 | Nov 24, 10:30 UTC |
| Arseneault / Horwood wins · Arseneault / Horwood | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 91 | Nov 24, 18:30 UTC |
| Campbell / Kalaitzis wins · Campbell / Kalaitzis | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 72 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Camara / Sajjid Koothrat wins · Camara / Sajjid Koothrat | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 38 | Nov 24, 14:30 UTC |
| Gabelic / Huggins wins · Gabelic / Huggins | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 33 | Nov 24, 10:30 UTC |
| Almazan Valiente / Lagutin wins · Almazan Valiente / Lagutin | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 33 | Nov 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Gannon / Taguchi wins · Gannon / Taguchi | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 29 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Massucco / Mecarelli wins · Massucco / Mecarelli | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 19 | Nov 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Alharrasi / Shanan Zayed wins · Alharrasi / Shanan Zayed | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 17 | Nov 24, 10:30 UTC |
| Caruso / Cocola wins · Caruso / Cocola | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 12 | Nov 24, 11:00 UTC |
| Kaan Oktay / Schlossmann wins · Kaan Oktay / Schlossmann | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 11 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Condorelli / Frost wins · Condorelli / Frost | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 9 | Nov 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Potenza / Tabacco wins · Potenza / Tabacco | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 4 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Lapalme / Roussel wins · Lapalme / Roussel | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 4 | Nov 24, 18:30 UTC |
| Brostrom Poulsen / Slavic wins · Brostrom Poulsen / Slavic | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 4 | Nov 24, 18:30 UTC |
| Yves Bailly / Herman wins · Yves Bailly / Herman | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 2 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Nittmann / Watzka wins · Nittmann / Watzka | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 2 | Nov 24, 18:00 UTC |
| Lage / Martinez Miranda wins · Lage / Martinez Miranda | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 24, 21:30 UTC |
| Covato / Voelzke wins · Covato / Voelzke | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 24, 21:30 UTC |
| Bianchi / Schtulmann Gasca wins · Bianchi / Schtulmann Gasca | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 24, 21:30 UTC |
| Alvarez / Cozad wins · Alvarez / Cozad | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 24, 21:30 UTC |
| Kim / Nakashima wins · Kim / Nakashima | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 24, 21:00 UTC |
| Heuwekemeijer / Snow wins · Heuwekemeijer / Snow | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 24, 21:00 UTC |
| Lessard / Miller wins · Lessard / Miller | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 24, 21:00 UTC |
| Forbes / Okonkwo wins · Forbes / Okonkwo | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 24, 21:00 UTC |
| Komolpisut / Suttisomboon wins · Komolpisut / Suttisomboon | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 24, 21:00 UTC |
| Battistone / Vance wins · Battistone / Vance | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 24, 21:00 UTC |
| Carvajal Suazo / Perret wins · Carvajal Suazo / Perret | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 24, 21:00 UTC |
| Carpico / Filin wins · Carpico / Filin | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 24, 21:00 UTC |
| Heck / Young wins · Heck / Young | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 24, 19:00 UTC |
| Hamill / Meyers wins · Hamill / Meyers | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 24, 19:00 UTC |
| Bruna / Dellien wins · Bruna / Dellien | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 24, 18:30 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 108 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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