Markets › Kalshi › Sports
ITF Men's Match on Kalshi
If Francisco Moreno Rico wins the Aguilera Guerrero vs Moreno Rico professional tennis match in the 2026 M15 Zamora Round of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, ITF, Fox Sports, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 260 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhao Zhao wins · Zhao Zhao | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 370,532 | Nov 24, 05:30 UTC |
| Yuta Kikuchi wins · Yuta Kikuchi | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 224,810 | Nov 24, 05:30 UTC |
| Rodrigo Leal wins · Rodrigo Leal | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 92,757 | Nov 23, 16:00 UTC |
| Diogo Morais wins · Diogo Morais | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 81,164 | Nov 23, 16:00 UTC |
| Martin Hammond wins · Martin Hammond | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 75,787 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Mathys Braun wins · Mathys Braun | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 67,008 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Louis Herman wins · Louis Herman | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 52,885 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Frederic Schlossmann wins · Frederic Schlossmann | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 41,514 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Georgios Dimitriou wins · Georgios Dimitriou | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 38,350 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Phil Dungs wins · Phil Dungs | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 37,042 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Arian Barbic wins · Arian Barbic | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 35,956 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Dorian Kos wins · Dorian Kos | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 24,369 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Martim Bernardo wins · Martim Bernardo | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 20,974 | Nov 23, 16:30 UTC |
| Noah Lopez wins · Noah Lopez | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 19,784 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Dragos Nicolae Madaras wins · Dragos Nicolae Madaras | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 17,781 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Dominique Rolland wins · Dominique Rolland | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 14,546 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Lars Wagenaar wins · Lars Wagenaar | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 11,179 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Gilberto Ravasio wins · Gilberto Ravasio | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 9,139 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Dzmitry Dziubailau wins · Dzmitry Dziubailau | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 9,068 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Matyas Kozlovsky wins · Matyas Kozlovsky | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 7,952 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Tomas Curras Abasolo wins · Tomas Curras Abasolo | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 4,738 | Nov 23, 16:30 UTC |
| Richard Zusman wins · Richard Zusman | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,624 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Dmytro Vterkovskiy wins · Dmytro Vterkovskiy | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 3,882 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Goncalo Da Rosa Castro wins · Goncalo Da Rosa Castro | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,958 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Oliwier Sterniczuk wins · Oliwier Sterniczuk | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,796 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Julio Cesar Porras wins · Julio Cesar Porras | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 2,794 | Nov 24, 09:30 UTC |
| Lourenco Silva E Costa wins · Lourenco Silva E Costa | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,651 | Nov 24, 11:00 UTC |
| Maximilian Marterer wins · Maximilian Marterer | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 1,879 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Dante Pagani wins · Dante Pagani | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,412 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Mustapha El Natour wins · Mustapha El Natour | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 1,139 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Elias Sumann wins · Elias Sumann | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,098 | Nov 24, 16:00 UTC |
| Ian Pedersen Lozano wins · Ian Pedersen Lozano | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,076 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Anders Matta wins · Anders Matta | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,072 | Nov 24, 19:00 UTC |
| Barney Fitzpatrick wins · Barney Fitzpatrick | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 1,057 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Victor Braga wins · Victor Braga | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,001 | Nov 24, 13:00 UTC |
| Ignacio De Armas wins · Ignacio De Armas | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 963 | Nov 24, 16:00 UTC |
| Mario Arce Fernandez wins · Mario Arce Fernandez | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 963 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Adam Kaczmarek wins · Adam Kaczmarek | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 940 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Andre Souza wins · Andre Souza | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 936 | Nov 24, 21:00 UTC |
| Tadeo Meneo wins · Tadeo Meneo | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 862 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 260 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.