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ITF Women's Doubles Match on Kalshi
If Marinescu / Asya Yilmaz wins the Marinescu / Asya Yilmaz vs Andrei / Maria Brotea professional tennis match in the 2026 W15 Antalya Round of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, ITF, Fox Sports, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 48 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black / Jauffret wins · Black / Jauffret | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 846 | Nov 24, 19:00 UTC |
| Kawano Cho / Meabe wins · Kawano Cho / Meabe | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 781 | Nov 24, 19:00 UTC |
| Plaza / Rodriguez wins · Plaza / Rodriguez | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 774 | Nov 24, 21:00 UTC |
| Pulchartova / Tahiri wins · Pulchartova / Tahiri | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 583 | Nov 24, 19:00 UTC |
| Raidt / Spencer wins · Raidt / Spencer | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 525 | Nov 25, 00:00 UTC |
| Konishi Camargo Silva / Souza wins · Konishi Camargo Silva / Souza | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 438 | Nov 24, 17:30 UTC |
| Grubor / Liu wins · Grubor / Liu | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 344 | Nov 25, 00:00 UTC |
| Hsu / Rademacher wins · Hsu / Rademacher | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 34 | Nov 25, 00:00 UTC |
| Tiemi Sakada da Costa / Santos wins · Tiemi Sakada da Costa / Santos | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 18 | Nov 24, 19:00 UTC |
| Maia Citolino / de Jesus Ribeiro Silveira wins · Maia Citolino / de Jesus Ribeiro Silveira | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 12 | Nov 24, 17:30 UTC |
| Gomes Ferreira / Schincariol Delatorre Barbosa wins · Gomes Ferreira / Schincariol Delatorre Barbosa | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 11 | Nov 24, 17:30 UTC |
| Eisch / Eisch wins · Eisch / Eisch | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 10 | Nov 24, 19:00 UTC |
| Gatica / Pereira wins · Gatica / Pereira | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 5 | Nov 24, 21:00 UTC |
| Marinescu / Asya Yilmaz wins · Marinescu / Asya Yilmaz | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 25, 09:00 UTC |
| Andrei / Maria Brotea wins · Andrei / Maria Brotea | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Nov 25, 09:00 UTC |
| Ren / Tang wins · Ren / Tang | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 25, 08:00 UTC |
| Cai / Yang wins · Cai / Yang | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 25, 08:00 UTC |
| Yi Liu / Lu wins · Yi Liu / Lu | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 25, 08:00 UTC |
| Hu / Xu wins · Hu / Xu | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 25, 08:00 UTC |
| Tian Deng / Sato wins · Tian Deng / Sato | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Hosoki / Katsumi wins · Hosoki / Katsumi | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Ishijima / Okawa wins · Ishijima / Okawa | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Arakawa / Ozeki wins · Arakawa / Ozeki | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Sawashiro / Uemura wins · Sawashiro / Uemura | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Madelyn Nugroho / Ovcharenko wins · Madelyn Nugroho / Ovcharenko | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Kuwata / Shimizu wins · Kuwata / Shimizu | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Aikawa / Yodpetch wins · Aikawa / Yodpetch | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Jeong / Young Suh Lee wins · Jeong / Young Suh Lee | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:30 UTC |
| Chaudhari / Hoedt wins · Chaudhari / Hoedt | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:30 UTC |
| Barry / Kawaguchi wins · Barry / Kawaguchi | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:30 UTC |
| Aulia / Micic wins · Aulia / Micic | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:30 UTC |
| Stevens / Thompson wins · Stevens / Thompson | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:30 UTC |
| Abe / Zheng wins · Abe / Zheng | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:30 UTC |
| Ito / Kinoshita wins · Ito / Kinoshita | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:30 UTC |
| Huang / Zhang wins · Huang / Zhang | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:30 UTC |
| Simes / Subasic wins · Simes / Subasic | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:30 UTC |
| Gadecki / Wen Wan wins · Gadecki / Wen Wan | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:30 UTC |
| Rahimkhani / Rizzetto wins · Rahimkhani / Rizzetto | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:00 UTC |
| Maunupau / Maunupau wins · Maunupau / Maunupau | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:00 UTC |
| Coe / Taranova wins · Coe / Taranova | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 48 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.