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ITF Women's Match on Kalshi
If Kyoka Okamura wins the Okamura vs Koike professional tennis match in the 2026 W50 Yokohama Round of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, ITF, Fox Sports, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 226 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karina Maria Capuzu wins · Karina Maria Capuzu | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 112,904 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| Victoria Gomez O'Hayon wins · Victoria Gomez O'Hayon | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 95,629 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| Mariya Yemshanova wins · Mariya Yemshanova | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 62,888 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| yasaman yazdani wins · yasaman yazdani | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 40,906 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| Theresa Stabauer wins · Theresa Stabauer | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 31,417 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| Denise Valente wins · Denise Valente | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 27,666 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| Klara Vaja wins · Klara Vaja | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 23,317 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| Ariadna Garcia-Patron Canals wins · Ariadna Garcia-Patron Canals | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 23,178 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Angelina Wirges wins · Angelina Wirges | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 22,155 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| Eloise Newberry wins · Eloise Newberry | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 18,701 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Jade Groen wins · Jade Groen | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14,018 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Luisa Fusil wins · Luisa Fusil | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,985 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Ana Giraldi Requena wins · Ana Giraldi Requena | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,278 | Nov 24, 08:30 UTC |
| Anais Gabriel wins · Anais Gabriel | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 10,804 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| Laura Svatikova wins · Laura Svatikova | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 8,778 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Serena Paris wins · Serena Paris | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,382 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Silvia Caliman wins · Silvia Caliman | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,027 | Nov 24, 08:30 UTC |
| Amelia Honer wins · Amelia Honer | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,116 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Tina Nadine Smith wins · Tina Nadine Smith | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 6,670 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Andreya Glushkova wins · Andreya Glushkova | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 6,497 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| Capucine Cedillo- Vayson de Pradenne wins · Capucine Cedillo- Vayson de Pradenne | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,333 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Ekaterina Agureeva wins · Ekaterina Agureeva | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,189 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| Katarina Kujovic wins · Katarina Kujovic | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 4,443 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Iliia Dashkevich wins · Iliia Dashkevich | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 4,131 | Nov 24, 08:30 UTC |
| Elena Korokozidi wins · Elena Korokozidi | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 3,830 | Nov 24, 09:30 UTC |
| Polina Skopintseva wins · Polina Skopintseva | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 3,497 | Nov 24, 08:30 UTC |
| Zeinab Ayadi wins · Zeinab Ayadi | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 3,475 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Natalija Senic wins · Natalija Senic | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 3,016 | Nov 24, 09:30 UTC |
| Stefanie Auer wins · Stefanie Auer | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 2,935 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| Sonia Cassani wins · Sonia Cassani | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 2,767 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Ema Harajda wins · Ema Harajda | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,553 | Nov 24, 08:30 UTC |
| Daria Barsukov wins · Daria Barsukov | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 2,539 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Andreea Prisacariu wins · Andreea Prisacariu | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 2,394 | Nov 24, 10:30 UTC |
| Chelsea Fontenel wins · Chelsea Fontenel | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,336 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Dimitra Georgakopoulou wins · Dimitra Georgakopoulou | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,250 | Nov 24, 09:30 UTC |
| Doga Turkmen wins · Doga Turkmen | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 2,001 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| Alexandra Chapurina wins · Alexandra Chapurina | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 1,922 | Nov 24, 08:30 UTC |
| Sophia Santos wins · Sophia Santos | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 1,712 | Nov 24, 13:00 UTC |
| Anastasia Zhilina wins · Anastasia Zhilina | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1,623 | Nov 24, 08:30 UTC |
| Anna Brunet-Brady wins · Anna Brunet-Brady | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 1,454 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 226 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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