Markets › Kalshi › Economics
U.S. jobs revisions on Kalshi
If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering November 2026 is above -50,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Market says (typical open contract)
34%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
68% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 34¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.31 | 35.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering November 2026 be above -50,000? · Above -50,000 | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering November 2026 be above 50,000? · Above 50,000 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering November 2026 be above -100,000? · Above -100,000 | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering November 2026 be above 100,000? · Above 100,000 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering November 2026 be above 0? · Above 0 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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