Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Johannesburg mayoral election on Kalshi
If Dada Morero wins the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
15% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Helen Zille win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections? · Helen Zille | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 6,731 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Frank Chikane win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections? · Frank Chikane | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5,852 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Makhura win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections? · David Makhura | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,992 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Loyiso Masuku win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections? · Loyiso Masuku | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 844 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Herman Mashaba win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections? · Herman Mashaba | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 843 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kenny Kunene win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections? · Kenny Kunene | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 239 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dada Morero win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections? · Dada Morero | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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