What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 3¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.40.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 3%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Soccer Join Club on Kalshi

If Erling Haaland's next club is Newcastle United before Sep 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Sky Sports, The Athletic, BBC Sport, ESPN.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 114 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

6% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Where will Erling Haaland go next? · Real Madrid	10¢	10%	0.7¢	—	21%	5,122	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Erling Haaland go next? · Barcelona	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	4,920	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Erling Haaland go next? · PSG	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	2,746	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Erling Haaland go next? · Bayern Munich	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	2,625	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Erling Haaland go next? · Arsenal	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	1,170	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Erling Haaland go next? · Manchester City	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	739	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Erling Haaland go next? · Manchester United	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	384	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Gianluigi Donnarumma go next? · Barcelona	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	234	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Elliot Anderson go next? · Real Madrid	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	223	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Enzo Fernandez go next? · AC Milan	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	168	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Jeremy Doku go next? · AC Milan	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	156	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Jeremy Doku go next? · Arsenal	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	78	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Antoine Semenyo go next? · Arsenal	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	67	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Gianluigi Donnarumma go next? · Real Madrid	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	58	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Elliot Anderson go next? · Chelsea	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	58	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Rayan Cherki go next? · PSG	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	36	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Phil Foden go next? · Chelsea	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	34	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Rayan Cherki go next? · Real Madrid	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	31	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Antoine Semenyo go next? · Atletico Madrid	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	18	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Rayan Cherki go next? · Barcelona	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	15	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Jeremy Doku go next? · Real Madrid	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	15	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Jeremy Doku go next? · PSG	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	15	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Jeremy Doku go next? · Barcelona	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	15	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Gianluigi Donnarumma go next? · Juventus	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	9	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Antoine Semenyo go next? · Bayern Munich	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	9	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Gianluigi Donnarumma go next? · Inter Milan	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	8	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Antoine Semenyo go next? · Manchester City	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	61%	6	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Antoine Semenyo go next? · Barcelona	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	5	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Antoine Semenyo go next? · Real Madrid	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	5	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Antoine Semenyo go next? · PSG	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	5	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Elliot Anderson go next? · Manchester City	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	67%	1	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Enzo Fernandez go next? · Manchester City	63¢	63%	1.6¢	—	74%	1	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Erling Haaland go next? · Newcastle United	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Erling Haaland go next? · Borussia Dortmund	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Rayan Cherki go next? · Tottenham	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Rayan Cherki go next? · Manchester United	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Rayan Cherki go next? · Manchester City	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	64%	0	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Rayan Cherki go next? · Liverpool	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Rayan Cherki go next? · Juventus	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC
Where will Rayan Cherki go next? · Inter Milan	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 114 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.