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Judges confirmed in a year on Kalshi
If above 2 federal judges are confirmed after Jan 1, 2027 and before Jan 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
45%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will at least 5 judges be confirmed in 2027? · At least 5 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 3,635 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will at least 10 judges be confirmed in 2027? · At least 10 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 1,526 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will at least 15 judges be confirmed in 2027? · At least 15 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 113 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will at least 3 judges be confirmed in 2027? · At least 3 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will at least 12 judges be confirmed in 2027? · At least 12 | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will at least 30 judges be confirmed in 2027? · At least 30 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will at least 20 judges be confirmed in 2027? · At least 20 | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will at least 1 judge be confirmed in 2027? · At least 1 | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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