What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 55¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.56.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 57% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 55%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Jim Justice announces a run for West Virginia governor on Kalshi

If Jim Justice has announced that they will run for Governor of West Virginia in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: West Virginia Secretary of State, Jim Justice, the Associated Press, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

55%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

89% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
55¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.57	56.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Jim Justice announce a run for Governor of West Virginia before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	91	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Jim Justice announce a run for Governor of West Virginia in 2028? · Before Jan 29, 2028	62¢	62%	1.6¢	—	75%	32	Jan 29, 15:00 UTC
Will Jim Justice announce a run for Governor of West Virginia before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	89%	11	Apr 01, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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