Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Kathmandu mayoral election winner on Kalshi
If the CPN-UML candidate wins the next Kathmandu mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Election Commission of Nepal.
Market says (typical open contract)
12%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
24% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.08 | 12.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Rastriya Swatantra Party candidate win the next Kathmandu mayoral election? · RSP | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 496 | May 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the CPN-UML candidate win the next Kathmandu mayoral election? · UML | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 195 | May 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Nepali Congress candidate win the next Kathmandu mayoral election? · Congress | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 80 | May 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Nepali Communist Party candidate win the next Kathmandu mayoral election? · NCP | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | May 12, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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