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KNVB Cup Winner on Kalshi
If Zwolle is the 2026-27 KNVB Cup champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
41%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
82% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 41¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.07 | 42.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zwolle win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Zwolle | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 300 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Volendam win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Volendam | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 300 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Telstar win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Telstar | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 300 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Heracles Almelo win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Heracles Almelo | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 300 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Groningen win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Groningen | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 300 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Den Haag win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Den Haag | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 300 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Willem II win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Willem II | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 200 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Breda win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Breda | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 200 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Sparta win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Sparta | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 150 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will GA Eagles win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · GA Eagles | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 100 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Sittard win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Sittard | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 100 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Excelsior win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Excelsior | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 100 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Cambuur win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Cambuur | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 100 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Enschede win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Enschede | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Eindhoven win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Eindhoven | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Nijmegen win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Nijmegen | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Heerenveen win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Heerenveen | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Feyenoord win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Feyenoord | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Utrecht win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Utrecht | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Alkmaar win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Alkmaar | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Ajax win the 2026-27 KNVB Cup? · Ajax | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | May 09, 16:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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