What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 6¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.31.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 6% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 6%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Mar-a-Lago visits on Kalshi

If Donald Trump makes exactly 5 or more trips to Mar-a-Lago in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Donald Trump, official schedules of the President, ABC, releases and public statements of White House, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Guardian, Bloomberg News, The Information, White House pool reports, CBS, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, official social media accounts of Donald Trump or his official representatives, the White House, official government sources of Florida, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

11% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
6¢ (now)	0.4¢	$3.29	6.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
How many times will Donald Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Nov 2026? · 5 or more	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	51%	49,300	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
How many times will Donald Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Nov 2026? · 4	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	20,418	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
How many times will Donald Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Nov 2026? · 3	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	13,785	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
How many times will Donald Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Nov 2026? · 1	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	6,543	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
How many times will Donald Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Nov 2026? · 2	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	6,089	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
How many times will Donald Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Nov 2026? · 0	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	102	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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