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La Liga Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Levante vs Elche professional La Liga soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 23, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
53% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.56 | 28.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins · Real Madrid | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 73,400 | Nov 23, 20:00 UTC |
| Barcelona wins · Barcelona | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 47,131 | Nov 24, 13:00 UTC |
| Celta Vigo wins · Celta Vigo | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 25,347 | Nov 23, 20:00 UTC |
| Real Betis wins · Real Betis | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 22,784 | Nov 23, 17:30 UTC |
| Villarreal wins · Villarreal | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 16,687 | Nov 24, 13:00 UTC |
| Valencia wins · Valencia | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 13,864 | Nov 23, 15:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 10,534 | Nov 24, 13:00 UTC |
| Espanyol wins · Espanyol | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 10,475 | Nov 22, 20:00 UTC |
| Atletico wins · Atletico | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 5,651 | Nov 24, 20:00 UTC |
| Bilbao wins · Bilbao | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 5,524 | Nov 22, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 3,316 | Nov 23, 20:00 UTC |
| Santander wins · Santander | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 3,101 | Nov 24, 15:15 UTC |
| Vallecano wins · Vallecano | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,973 | Nov 23, 15:15 UTC |
| Real Sociedad wins · Real Sociedad | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1,543 | Nov 24, 15:15 UTC |
| Alaves wins · Alaves | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1,231 | Nov 23, 13:00 UTC |
| Sevilla wins · Sevilla | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 1,207 | Nov 23, 17:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 1,005 | Nov 23, 17:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 881 | Nov 22, 20:00 UTC |
| Deportivo De La Coruna wins · Deportivo De La Coruna | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 754 | Nov 23, 13:00 UTC |
| Osasuna wins · Osasuna | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 567 | Nov 24, 17:30 UTC |
| Levante wins · Levante | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 422 | Nov 25, 20:00 UTC |
| Elche wins · Elche | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 214 | Nov 25, 20:00 UTC |
| Getafe wins · Getafe | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 168 | Nov 24, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 167 | Nov 23, 13:00 UTC |
| Malaga wins · Malaga | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 128 | Nov 24, 17:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 87 | Nov 25, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 17 | Nov 24, 17:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 17 | Nov 24, 15:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 13 | Nov 23, 15:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 3 | Nov 24, 20:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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