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La Liga Leader on Kalshi
If Yan Diomande leads La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, Sky Sports, NBC Sports, ESPN, CBS Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
39% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.80 | 21.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kylian Mbappe lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Kylian Mbappe | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 5,644 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Yan Diomande lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Yan Diomande | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,285 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Dani Olmo lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Dani Olmo | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,908 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Raphinha lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Raphinha | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 2,853 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Hugo Duro lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Hugo Duro | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,315 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lamine Yamal lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Lamine Yamal | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,181 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Cucho Hernandez lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Cucho Hernandez | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 994 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Robbie Ure lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Robbie Ure | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 991 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Toni Martinez lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Toni Martinez | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 818 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Mikel Oyarzabal lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Mikel Oyarzabal | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 684 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Gerard Moreno lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Gerard Moreno | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 572 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Alexander Sorloth lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Alexander Sorloth | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 567 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Ademola Lookman lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Ademola Lookman | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 544 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Vinicius Junior lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Vinicius Junior | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 479 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Carlos Espi lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Carlos Espi | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 434 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lee Kang-in lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Lee Kang-in | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 405 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Gorka Guruzeta lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Gorka Guruzeta | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 390 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Georges Mikautadze lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Georges Mikautadze | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 350 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Borja Iglesias lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Borja Iglesias | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 333 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Julian Alvarez lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Julian Alvarez | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 326 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Jude Bellingham lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Jude Bellingham | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 324 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Endrick lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Endrick | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 287 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Anthony Gordon lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Anthony Gordon | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 252 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Ante Budimir lead La Liga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Ante Budimir | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 209 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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