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La Liga Relegation on Kalshi
If Villarreal is relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
15%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
29% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.98 | 15.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barcelona be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Barcelona | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,785 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Atletico Madrid be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Atletico Madrid | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 995 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Real Madrid be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Real Madrid | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 324 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Elche be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Elche | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 292 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Valencia be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Valencia | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 267 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Levante be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Levante | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 232 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Espanyol be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Espanyol | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 182 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Malaga be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Malaga | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 148 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Racing Santander be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Racing Santander | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 145 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Getafe be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Getafe | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 121 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Osasuna be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Osasuna | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 85 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Rayo Vallecano be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Rayo Vallecano | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 56 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Alaves be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Alaves | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 53 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Deportivo De La Coruna be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Deportivo De La Coruna | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 33 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Real Sociedad be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Real Sociedad | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 11 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Villarreal be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Villarreal | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 3 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Celta Vigo be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Celta Vigo | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Sevilla be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Sevilla | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Betis be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Betis | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Athletic Bilbao be relegated from La Liga in 2026-27 Season? · Athletic Bilbao | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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