What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 16¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.94.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 17% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 16%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Nominees confirmed in the lame-duck session on Kalshi

If the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate is at least 200 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: United States Senate, Library of Congress.

Market says (typical open contract)

16%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

32% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
16¢ (now)	0.9¢	$2.94	16.9%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 10 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 10	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	10,401	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 50 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 50	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	51%	9,450	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 125 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 125	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	8,975	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 75 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 75	27¢	27%	1.4¢	—	54%	7,538	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 100 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 100	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	5,307	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 25 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 25	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	3,444	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 175 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 175	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	234	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 150 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 150	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	225	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 200 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 200	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	5	Jan 04, 13:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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