What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 98¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.07.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 98% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 98%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election MOV on Kalshi

If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 16% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>.

Market says (typical open contract)

98%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

4% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%
98¢ (now)	0.1¢	$0.07	98.1%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 4%? · Nithya Raman, ≥4%	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	30,014	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 2%? · Nithya Raman, ≥2%	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	23,040	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 10%? · Nithya Raman, ≥10%	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	21,338	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 6%? · Nithya Raman, ≥6%	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	13,219	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 14%? · Nithya Raman, ≥14%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	12,465	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 8%? · Nithya Raman, ≥8%	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	11,852	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 12%? · Nithya Raman, ≥12%	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	7,235	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 16%? · Nithya Raman, ≥16%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	7,162	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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