Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology
Humanity's Last Exam on Kalshi
If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 90% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Humanity's Last Exam.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
87% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? · At least 60% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 19,776 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? · At least 65% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 14,821 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? · At least 55% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 11,789 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? · At least 70% | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 8,682 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? · At least 70% | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 6,376 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? · At least 60% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 3,902 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? · At least 50% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,137 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? · At least 75% | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 2,467 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? · At least 80% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 2,122 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? · At least 65% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1,870 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? · At least 80% | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,782 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? · At least 75% | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,589 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 95% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? · At least 95% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1,329 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 90% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? · At least 90% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,286 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 85% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? · At least 85% | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 865 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 90% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? · At least 90% | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 701 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any LLM score at least 85% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? · At least 85% | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 701 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.