What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.43.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Latvia Prime Minister after the election on Kalshi

If Viktors Valainis becomes Prime Minister of Latvia as a result of government formation following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: President of Latvia, Saeima, Central Election Commission of Latvia.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

4% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.43	2.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Ivars Ijabs become Prime Minister of Latvia following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? · Ivars Ijabs	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	4,644	Oct 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Jūlija Stepaņenko become Prime Minister of Latvia following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? · Jūlija Stepaņenko	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	4,000	Oct 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Jānis Citskovskis become Prime Minister of Latvia following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? · Jānis Citskovskis	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	3,823	Oct 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Svetlana Čulkova become Prime Minister of Latvia following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? · Svetlana Čulkova	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	3,601	Oct 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Alvis Hermanis become Prime Minister of Latvia following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? · Alvis Hermanis	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	3,601	Oct 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Raivis Zeltīts become Prime Minister of Latvia following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? · Raivis Zeltīts	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	2,616	Oct 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Andris Kulbergs become Prime Minister of Latvia following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? · Andris Kulbergs	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	1,864	Oct 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Viktors Valainis become Prime Minister of Latvia following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? · Viktors Valainis	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,794	Oct 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Ilze Indriksone become Prime Minister of Latvia following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? · Ilze Indriksone	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Oct 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Andris Šuvajevs become Prime Minister of Latvia following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? · Andris Šuvajevs	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Oct 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Ainārs Šlesers become Prime Minister of Latvia following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? · Ainārs Šlesers	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Oct 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Arvils Ašeradens become Prime Minister of Latvia following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? · Arvils Ašeradens	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Oct 03, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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