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Total Commercial Launches on Kalshi
If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 9 launches in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Aviation Administration, Launch Operators.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in November 2026? · Above 9 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,592 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in November 2026? · Above 10 | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 1,101 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in November 2026? · Above 11 | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 812 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in November 2026? · Above 12 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 253 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in November 2026? · Above 14 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 246 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in November 2026? · Above 13 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 226 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in November 2026? · Above 20 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 139 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in November 2026? · Above 19 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in November 2026? · Above 18 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in November 2026? · Above 17 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in November 2026? · Above 16 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in November 2026? · Above 15 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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