What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 54¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.59.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 56% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 54%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Steve Feinberg out as Deputy Secretary of Defense? on Kalshi

If Steve Feinberg has either officially announced their intention to leave Deputy Secretary of Defense or has actually left Deputy Secretary of Defense after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, ABC, the White House, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Department of Defense, The Washington Post, Axios, Fox News, Reuters, NBC, The Information, Semafor, Politico, CNN, the Associated Press, CBS, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

54%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

91% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
54¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.61	55.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	65%	159	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	91%	69	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Steve Feinberg announce his departure or leave office as Deputy Secretary of Defense before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	65¢	65%	1.6¢	—	70%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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