What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.20.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will lisa cook leave office on Kalshi

If Lisa DeNell Cook leaves or announces that they will leave their position as Federal Reserve Governor before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Washington Post, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, ABC, the Associated Press, NBC, Axios, The New York Times, official government websites relevant to <office>, Politico, office or organization where <person> holds <office>, CNN, Reuters, CBS, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

17% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.19	9.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Lisa DeNell Cook out as Federal Reserve Governor before Jan 2027? · Before Jan 2027	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	59,661	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Lisa DeNell Cook out as Federal Reserve Governor before Jul 2028? · Before Jul 2028	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	1,436	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Lisa DeNell Cook out as Federal Reserve Governor before Jul 2027? · Before Jul 2027	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	19	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Lisa DeNell Cook out as Federal Reserve Governor before Jan 2028? · Before Jan 2028	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	5	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Lisa DeNell Cook out as Federal Reserve Governor before Jan 2029? · Before Jan 2029	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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