What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 42¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.05.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 43% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 42%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? on Kalshi

If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Federal Government of Germany, Reuters, German Bundestag, Associated Press, Office of the Federal Chancellor of Germany.

Market says (typical open contract)

42%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

83% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
42¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.03	43.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	6,223	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	2,930	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	83%	2,057	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	55%	1,006	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029? · Before Jan 1, 2029	74¢	74%	1.4¢	—	53%	620	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2028? · Before Jul 1, 2028	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	504	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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