What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 22¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 23% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 22%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will another country leave OPEC? on Kalshi

If Venezuela agrees to or announces an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deutsche Welle, The Guardian, BBC News, France 24 English, NHK World-Japan, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, NBC News, The Times of India, CBS News, ABC News, The Washington Post, Fox News, Financial Times, CNN, ABC News Australia, The New York Times, The Globe and Mail, Al Jazeera English, the Associated Press, Reuters, The South China Morning Post, Politico, Channel NewsAsia.

Market says (typical open contract)

22%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

43% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
22¢ (now)	1.2¢	$2.73	23.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? · Yes	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	28,847	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	2	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	75%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.