Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Lebanon parliament on Kalshi
If the winner of the next Lebanese general election is Election Postponed Beyond Expiration, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win the next Lebanese general election? · Lebanese Forces | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 12,348 | May 11, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the Election Postponed Beyond Expiration win the next Lebanese general election? · Election Postponed Beyond Expiration | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 8,221 | May 11, 03:59 UTC |
| Who will win the next Lebanese general election? · Amal Movement | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 6,601 | May 11, 03:59 UTC |
| Who will win the next Lebanese general election? · Hezbollah | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,282 | May 11, 03:59 UTC |
| Who will win the next Lebanese general election? · FPM | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 430 | May 11, 03:59 UTC |
| Who will win the next Lebanese general election? · Tashnag | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 2 | May 11, 03:59 UTC |
| Who will win the next Lebanese general election? · PSP | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 1 | May 11, 03:59 UTC |
| Who will win the next Lebanese general election? · Marada Movement | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 1 | May 11, 03:59 UTC |
| Who will win the next Lebanese general election? · Kataeb | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 1 | May 11, 03:59 UTC |
| Who will win the next Lebanese general election? · Independence Movement | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 1 | May 11, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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