Markets › Kalshi › Economics
U.S. labor force participation rate on Kalshi
If the US labor force participation rate for December 2026 is at least 62.0%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Trading Economics, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
14%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
28% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.01 | 14.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 60.5% and 60.9%? · 60.5% to 60.9% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 2,612 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.5% and 61.9%? · 61.5% to 61.9% | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,166 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be at least 62.0%? · 62.0% or Above | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 937 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.0% and 61.4%? · 61.0% to 61.4% | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 615 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be below 60.5%? · Below 60.5% | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 475 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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