Markets › Kalshi › Economics
U.S. labor force participation rate at year-end on Kalshi
If the U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2036 is above 64.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Trading Economics.
Market says (typical open contract)
72%
Median YES price across 187 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
56% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 72¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $0.98 | 73.4% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2028 be above 56.00%? · Above 56.00% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10,300 | Jan 05, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 59.00%? · Above 59.00% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,342 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2030 be above 56.00%? · Above 56.00% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,620 | Jan 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2030 be above 57.50%? · Above 57.50% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 3,105 | Jan 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2033 be above 58.50%? · Above 58.50% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 2,880 | Jan 06, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 58.50%? · Above 58.50% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,705 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2029 be above 58.50%? · Above 58.50% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,644 | Jan 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 62.00%? · Above 62.00% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,633 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2030 be above 58.00%? · Above 58.00% | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 2,625 | Jan 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2031 be above 58.00%? · Above 58.00% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,606 | Jan 09, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2031 be above 56.00%? · Above 56.00% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,520 | Jan 09, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 59.50%? · Above 59.50% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,334 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 61.00%? · Above 61.00% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,267 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 60.00%? · Above 60.00% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,162 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 60.50%? · Above 60.50% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,109 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2028 be above 58.50%? · Above 58.50% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,829 | Jan 05, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2030 be above 56.50%? · Above 56.50% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,559 | Jan 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2028 be above 58.00%? · Above 58.00% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,250 | Jan 05, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 62.50%? · Above 62.50% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,200 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2031 be above 58.50%? · Above 58.50% | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,032 | Jan 09, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2029 be above 56.00%? · Above 56.00% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 950 | Jan 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 61.50%? · Above 61.50% | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 929 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2030 be above 58.50%? · Above 58.50% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 675 | Jan 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2031 be above 57.50%? · Above 57.50% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 615 | Jan 09, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2029 be above 58.00%? · Above 58.00% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 512 | Jan 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2027 be above 58.50%? · Above 58.50% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 450 | Jan 07, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2032 be above 56.00%? · Above 56.00% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 425 | Jan 07, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2027 be above 56.00%? · Above 56.00% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 323 | Jan 07, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2032 be above 58.00%? · Above 58.00% | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 250 | Jan 07, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2031 be above 56.50%? · Above 56.50% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 230 | Jan 09, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2033 be above 57.50%? · Above 57.50% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 217 | Jan 06, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2036 be above 57.00%? · Above 57.00% | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 217 | Jan 09, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2035 be above 57.00%? · Above 57.00% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 217 | Jan 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2034 be above 57.00%? · Above 57.00% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 215 | Jan 05, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2028 be above 57.00%? · Above 57.00% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 200 | Jan 05, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 58.00%? · Above 58.00% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 200 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 57.50%? · Above 57.50% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 200 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 56.00%? · Above 56.00% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 200 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2030 be above 57.00%? · Above 57.00% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 199 | Jan 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 56.50%? · Above 56.50% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 150 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 187 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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