What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 30¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.43.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 32% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 30%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Spread on Kalshi

If Leones Negros wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Atletico Morelia vs Leones Negros professional Liga de Expansion MX soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN.

Market says (typical open contract)

30%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

61% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢ (now)	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Atletico Morelia wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Atletico Morelia wins by more than 2.5 goals	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	1,199	Nov 15, 02:00 UTC
Atletico Morelia wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Atletico Morelia wins by more than 1.5 goals	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	65%	135	Nov 15, 02:00 UTC
Leones Negros wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Leones Negros wins by more than 2.5 goals	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	84%	0	Nov 15, 02:00 UTC
Leones Negros wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Leones Negros wins by more than 1.5 goals	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Nov 15, 02:00 UTC
Piratas Veracruz wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Piratas Veracruz wins by more than 2.5 goals	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	0	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Piratas Veracruz wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Piratas Veracruz wins by more than 1.5 goals	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	61%	0	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Club Atletico La Paz wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Club Atletico La Paz wins by more than 2.5 goals	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	89%	0	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Club Atletico La Paz wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Club Atletico La Paz wins by more than 1.5 goals	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	0	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.