What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 58¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.47.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 60% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 58%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Point Total on Kalshi

If over 5.5 goals are scored in the Atletico Morelia vs Leones Negros professional Liga de Expansion MX soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: FIFA.

Market says (typical open contract)

58%

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

84% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
58¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.47	59.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will over 5.5 goals be scored? · Over 5.5 goals scored	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	Nov 15, 02:00 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	18¢	18%	1.1¢	—	37%	Nov 15, 02:00 UTC
Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored	37¢	37%	1.6¢	—	74%	Nov 15, 02:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	84%	Nov 15, 02:00 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	39%	Nov 15, 02:00 UTC
Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored	93¢	93%	0.5¢	—	14%	Nov 15, 02:00 UTC
Will over 5.5 goals be scored? · Over 5.5 goals scored	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored	39¢	39%	1.7¢	—	78%	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	79%	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	82¢	82%	1.1¢	—	37%	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	71%	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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