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Liga MX Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Queretaro vs Necaxa professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
34%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
69% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 34¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.31 | 35.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul wins · Cruz Azul | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 17,743 | Nov 24, 23:07 UTC |
| Monterrey wins · Monterrey | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 14,685 | Nov 16, 23:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 5,355 | Nov 24, 23:07 UTC |
| Santos Laguna wins · Santos Laguna | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 4,211 | Nov 23, 23:00 UTC |
| Queretaro wins · Queretaro | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 2,921 | Nov 16, 23:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 2,200 | Nov 16, 23:00 UTC |
| Guadalajara wins · Guadalajara | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,384 | Nov 24, 23:07 UTC |
| America wins · America | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,355 | Nov 24, 03:00 UTC |
| Tijuana wins · Tijuana | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,111 | Nov 23, 03:00 UTC |
| Puebla wins · Puebla | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 998 | Nov 23, 01:00 UTC |
| Atlas wins · Atlas | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 919 | Nov 23, 03:00 UTC |
| Toluca wins · Toluca | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 899 | Nov 23, 23:00 UTC |
| Atlante wins · Atlante | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 777 | Nov 23, 03:00 UTC |
| Pachuca wins · Pachuca | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 747 | Nov 23, 23:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 705 | Nov 23, 23:00 UTC |
| Leon wins · Leon | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 688 | Nov 23, 23:00 UTC |
| Tigres wins · Tigres | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 421 | Nov 24, 03:00 UTC |
| San Luis wins · San Luis | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 409 | Nov 23, 01:00 UTC |
| Juarez wins · Juarez | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 213 | Nov 23, 03:00 UTC |
| Necaxa wins · Necaxa | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 198 | Nov 25, 01:00 UTC |
| Monterrey wins · Monterrey | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 179 | Nov 24, 01:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 167 | Nov 23, 01:00 UTC |
| Pumas UNAM wins · Pumas UNAM | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 159 | Nov 24, 01:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 66 | Nov 24, 03:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 66 | Nov 23, 23:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 64 | Nov 23, 03:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 54 | Nov 24, 01:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 17 | Nov 23, 03:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 4 | Nov 25, 01:00 UTC |
| Queretaro wins · Queretaro | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1 | Nov 25, 01:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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