What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 40¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.08.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 42% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 40%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Liga MX Top Finishers on Kalshi

If Toluca is a top 8 finisher in the 2026 Liga MX Apertura regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Sky Sports, ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox Sports.

Market says (typical open contract)

40%

Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

81% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
41¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.07	42.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Santos Laguna finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Santos Laguna	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	24%	1,581	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Leon finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Leon	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	1,313	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Atlas finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Atlas	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	957	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Atlante finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Atlante	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	823	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Tigres finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Tigres	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	667	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Pachuca finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Pachuca	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	72%	619	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Cruz Azul finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Cruz Azul	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	432	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will San Luis finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · San Luis	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	409	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will America finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · America	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	364	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Guadalajara finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Guadalajara	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	352	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Toluca finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Toluca	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	350	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Necaxa finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Necaxa	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	347	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Pumas UNAM finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Pumas UNAM	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	241	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Monterrey finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Monterrey	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	197	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Queretaro finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Queretaro	33¢	33%	1.5¢	—	66%	180	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Tijuana de Caliente finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Tijuana de Caliente	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	166	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Juarez finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Juarez	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	13	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Puebla finish in the top 8 in the Liga MX Apertura regular season? · Puebla	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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