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Ligue 1 Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Paris FC vs Angers professional Ligue 1 soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
27%
Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
54% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.56 | 28.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG wins · PSG | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 21,795 | Nov 23, 16:15 UTC |
| Nice wins · Nice | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 3,270 | Nov 23, 16:15 UTC |
| Troyes wins · Troyes | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 2,875 | Nov 22, 19:45 UTC |
| Lens wins · Lens | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 624 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
| Monaco wins · Monaco | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 162 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
| Paris FC wins · Paris FC | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 158 | Nov 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Marseille wins · Marseille | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 133 | Nov 24, 19:45 UTC |
| Le Havre wins · Le Havre | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 127 | Nov 22, 19:45 UTC |
| Lyon wins · Lyon | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 57 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
| Lille wins · Lille | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 45 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
| Angers wins · Angers | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 40 | Nov 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Toulouse wins · Toulouse | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 39 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 29 | Nov 23, 16:15 UTC |
| Stade Brest 29 wins · Stade Brest 29 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 29 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
| Le Mans wins · Le Mans | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 26 | Nov 24, 19:45 UTC |
| Stade Rennais wins · Stade Rennais | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 21 | Nov 24, 16:15 UTC |
| Auxerre wins · Auxerre | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 7 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
| Lorient wins · Lorient | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 6 | Nov 24, 16:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 2 | Nov 22, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 24, 16:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 24, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
| Strasbourg Alsace wins · Strasbourg Alsace | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.