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Team Points on Kalshi
If Toulouse reaches at least 55 points in the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 72 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
92% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 46¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.89 | 47.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Monaco finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 60+ points? · Monaco: 60+ Points | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 82 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will PSG finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 80+ points? · PSG: 80+ Points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 11 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Angers finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 30+ points? · Angers: 30+ Points | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Toulouse finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 55+ points? · Toulouse: 55+ Points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Toulouse finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 50+ points? · Toulouse: 50+ Points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Toulouse finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 45+ points? · Toulouse: 45+ Points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Toulouse finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 40+ points? · Toulouse: 40+ Points | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stade Brest 29 finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 50+ points? · Stade Brest 29: 50+ Points | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stade Brest 29 finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 45+ points? · Stade Brest 29: 45+ Points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stade Brest 29 finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 40+ points? · Stade Brest 29: 40+ Points | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stade Brest 29 finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 35+ points? · Stade Brest 29: 35+ Points | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stade Rennes finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 65+ points? · Stade Rennes: 65+ Points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stade Rennes finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 60+ points? · Stade Rennes: 60+ Points | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stade Rennes finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 55+ points? · Stade Rennes: 55+ Points | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stade Rennes finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 50+ points? · Stade Rennes: 50+ Points | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Strasbourg Alsace finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 60+ points? · Strasbourg Alsace: 60+ Points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Strasbourg Alsace finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 55+ points? · Strasbourg Alsace: 55+ Points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Strasbourg Alsace finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 50+ points? · Strasbourg Alsace: 50+ Points | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Strasbourg Alsace finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 45+ points? · Strasbourg Alsace: 45+ Points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lens finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 75+ points? · Lens: 75+ Points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lens finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 70+ points? · Lens: 70+ Points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lens finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 65+ points? · Lens: 65+ Points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lens finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 60+ points? · Lens: 60+ Points | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will PSG finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 90+ points? · PSG: 90+ Points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will PSG finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 85+ points? · PSG: 85+ Points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will PSG finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 75+ points? · PSG: 75+ Points | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Paris finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 50+ points? · Paris: 50+ Points | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Paris finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 45+ points? · Paris: 45+ Points | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Paris finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 40+ points? · Paris: 40+ Points | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Paris finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 35+ points? · Paris: 35+ Points | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Marseille finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 70+ points? · Marseille: 70+ Points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Marseille finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 65+ points? · Marseille: 65+ Points | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Marseille finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 60+ points? · Marseille: 60+ Points | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Marseille finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 55+ points? · Marseille: 55+ Points | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lyon finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 70+ points? · Lyon: 70+ Points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lyon finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 65+ points? · Lyon: 65+ Points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lyon finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 60+ points? · Lyon: 60+ Points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lyon finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 55+ points? · Lyon: 55+ Points | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Nice finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 40+ points? · Nice: 40+ Points | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Nice finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 35+ points? · Nice: 35+ Points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 72 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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